The Bulls are Running Wild
In today’s video, we tackle a question that many cattle traders are eager to answer: When will this powerful bull market in live and feeder cattle begin to falter? While we often joke about it being “Black Swan Hunting Season” whenever markets push into record territory, the real concern is—when does that season actually begin? And more importantly, do we need to start posting “no hunting” signs in the form of protective strategies like put options or hedges?
One of the early warning signs is a market acceleration that visually resembles the formation of a rhino horn on the charts—starting with a slow incline that quickly steepens. Monday’s gap higher in both live and feeder cattle had the potential to kick off such a move, but that surge was initially stalled, with prices trading flat to lower before rebounding into the close. Today’s action followed a similar pattern, opening weak before pushing higher into the end of the session. What we’re ultimately looking for is a relentless rally—one so strong that even short-term sellers and day traders struggle to capitalize during intra-day pullbacks.
In this video, we dig into the details, exploring historical patterns that align with scenarios where the cattle market could lose momentum—particularly during sharp, accelerated rallies like the one we're currently experiencing. We focus on the weekly charts, where we begin to see consistent signals that offer some level of predictability. While these patterns aren’t guaranteed to forecast the future, the historical relevance is hard to ignore.
We also identify specific calendar dates falling within a key two-week window that could prove significant for market direction. In addition, we include a segment on crude oil, where our earlier projection of a move back toward the $70 level is now playing out in real time.
This deeper dive aims to help you better prepare for what may lie ahead—and determine whether it’s time to consider defensive strategies in an increasingly frothy market.