Another Mixed Morning in Grain Markets
Wheat
Wednesday's Recap
Wheat futures were higher Tuesday with the Dec contract finishing the session at 570'4, up 11'6, or 2.10%. Across all maturities, volume was 125,918, with Dec seeing 67,415 done. Overall open interest dropped 585 (0.14%) to end the session with 415,985 outstanding. The Dec maturity decreased 2.53%, or 585, to finish at 198,434.
Technicals
Wheat futures have been able to defend our "MUST HOLD" support pocket this week, that remains intact from 557 1/2-560 1/2. On the resistance side, the Bulls want to chew through and close above our pivot pocket from 582 3/4-585 1/2 to spur some excitement about a more meaningful rally.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 596-600, 615-617 1/2, 629 1/2-634
Pivot: 582 3/4-585 1/2
Support: 557 1/2-560 1/2, 544 1/4***
Fundamental Notes
Weekly Export Sales Estimates
- Range: 350,000 - 650,000 MT. Avg Est: 488,000. Last Week: 533,000 MT.
Russian Exports
SovEcon sees wheat exports at 45.9m tons, down from 47.6m tons citing "a decrease in the crop forecast and increased intervention by the Ministry of Agriculture in market operations".
Popular Options
Option volumes were highest for the Dec 600 call (858) and the Dec 570 put (2,151). Options with the greatest open interest are the Dec 600 call with 8,238, and the Dec 550 put with 7,693.
Volatility Update
Implied Volatility finished the session slightly up with WVL higher by 0.14, to end the day at 29.82. The 30-day historical volatility finished the day off by 0.53% to 24.46%. The WVL Skew finished the day lower, dropping by 0.37 to end at 5.72.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
Below is a look at historical price averages for March wheat futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
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